War Notes: November 29, 2009

Afghanistan's lack of infrastructure will slow the implementation of President Obama's surge, and troops will be phased in over 12-18 months. Following Obama's Tuesday speech at West Point, 9,000 Marines will deploy to Helmand province in southern Afghanistan, where most of the action is taking place. They will be followed by 1,000 U.S Army trainers that will work with the Afghan National Army and the Afghan police. The remaining 20-25,000 troops will deploy over the course of 2010 and early 2011.
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Any hope for Representative David Obey's "war surtax" seemed to be dashed by Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) today.
"There should have been, as far as I'm concerned, tax increases for upper bracket folks who did so well during the Bush years - that's where the tax increases should have taken place. But that should have happened some time ago. But in the middle of this recession, I don't think you're going to be able successfully or fairly to add a tax burden to middle-income people. I think you could tax the upper brackets, $250,000 or more, but I don't think middle income America is in a position now where they could pay additional taxes because the economic stress is so great here."
Levin generally falls within the liberal half of the Democratic Party, so his reservations are not a good indicator of the bills likelihood. A surtax solely on the wealthy, while more politically feasible, would not cover the increased costs of the Obama troop surge. Raising taxes is an anathema to most politicians, especially in the Senate, where a number of Democrats will be facing competitive races in 2010.
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British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has laid out five benchmarks that NATO will ask the Karzai government to meet at an upcoming conference:

■ Within three months Kabul must identify additional troops to send to Helmand province for training.

■ Within six months there must be clear plans for police training.

■ Within nine months President Hamid Karzai must have appointed almost 400 provincial and district governors.

■ Within 12 months 5,000 additional Afghan troops will be trained by Britain in Helmand and thousands more in other parts of the country.

■ By the end of 2010 Afghan security forces must be taking the lead in five out of the country's 34 provinces. Control in one or two districts in Helmand will also be handed over.

While these benchmarks will probably not be met (I'd venture it won't even be close), it is worth documenting them. The ever-changing benchmarks and demands for patience are part of what made the war in Iraq under President Bush so infuriating.